Modern humanity is on the verge of space expansion, which promises to begin a period of the most powerful economic and civilizational upsurge of humanity, comparable to the sea expansion and industrial revolution of the past.
But instead of purposeful steps into a new space, humanity continues to hesitantly stomp on its doorstep. Large-scale space exploration is constrained by the high cost and low efficiency of space transport, but despite the cost of flights, practical space exploration is already underway in the form of a grouping of near-earth satellites.
I can propose an alternative scenario for the development of the space industry, which makes it possible to make the transition from a modern satellite constellation to large-scale colonization of space in several stages, without requiring inaccessible technologies or super-expensive government programs for its implementation.
Together with the flights of the first spaceships, mankind gained access to a new space, the expanses and resources of which are infinitely superior to anything that can be available on earth. With the beginning of the space expansion of mankind, the period of its highest economic growth and transition to a new stage of civilizational development will begin. Comparable to the industrial revolution of the past, to which the maritime expansion of several European states in due time pushed. The era of scientific and technological progress raised the level of development of civilization to such a height that, according to the standards of the Middle Ages, seemed unattainable and unthinkable.
The emergence of space transport systems made extraterrestrial space accessible for exploration, but instead of purposefully moving into a new space, humanity continues to hesitantly stomp on its doorstep, moving into space in small steps, mainly due to research programs. Now it is becoming obvious that scientific or humanitarian goals are sufficient only to continue space exploration, the transition to large-scale colonization of space is possible only through programs designed for direct, practical benefits.
Practical space exploration began with the space information services industry, which is sourced from a constellation of commercial satellites in Earth orbit. The satellite industry is successful from a commercial point of view, now it has taken a strong place in the world information system, is actively developing and expanding. But space cannot be explored by satellites alone, satellites are automata tied to their orbits and narrow spheres of information services. A satellite constellation, an appendage of the information sphere of the earth, and its development by itself will not be able to move into the colonization of space.
For new steps in space exploration, projects are needed that involve, first of all, the practical development of extraterrestrial mineral resources. This sphere is not tied to narrow sectors of information services, and its further expansion is practically unlimited.
In the last decade, new promising projects have begun to be actively worked out, designed for the extraction of rare and expensive types of raw materials in space, such as precious metals, on asteroids, or radioactive raw materials on the moon, the high price of which will recoup transport costs. The projects of Diip Space Industries and Planetary Resourses look especially realistic.
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Projects related to the extraction of expensive raw materials in space will undoubtedly become a new step in its practical development. But they also have their own limitations, these will be space mines, not industrial bases.
Unlike the well-known raw material projects, the scenario of space exploration proposed by me presupposes, first of all, the development of the space industry and transport infrastructure. Industrial projects, in contrast to raw materials, make it possible to start transferring world industry outside the land, and not just individual narrow mining capacities. Although raw materials projects are also included in the development scenario, they play an auxiliary role and their task is not to supply raw materials to the earth, but to provide a space industrial system.
The scenario is based on an industrial constellation designed to serve and expand the satellite industry and other areas of space services. The industrial constellation should become a kind of superstructure above the satellite constellation. But unlike satellites, which mainly serve as space repeaters or observation stations, the industrial group will be capable of a variety of activities related to transport, installation, maintenance of spacecraft, development of production and development of alien resources. The growth of an industrial constellation designed to service satellites will ultimately lead to the creation of space colonies and the transfer of world industrial facilities off the earth.
The industrial constellation is made up of several major projects, infrastructure transport systems, a commercial resource base on the moon, and a commercial orbital station that serves as the main support base of the near-earth space group, a transport hub and a production technology center.
Transport projects are divided into two main classes, infrastructure, flow, launching system and orbital transport system consisting of reusable space tugs.
Launching into orbit through the "Cosmoport"
The in-line launch system should replace modern launch vehicles designed to launch satellites directly into working orbits from the ground by launching small, standardized modular units into an orbital station. Fulfilling the task of a space transport hub - "Orbital spaceport". With a specialized lightweight carrier. A specialized carrier - "Pony", with simplified engines without turbine pumps and remote control systems that do not have autonomous "Inertial" attitude control systems, is very cheap and easy to manufacture.
The disadvantages of this rocket include low carrying capacity and lack of complete autonomy in flight, attachment to one trajectory. But for the delivery of satellites to the station in parts in the form of modular blocks, a high carrying capacity is not needed. As well as a high level of autonomy, for flights on one fixed route.
The Pony carrier is optimally adapted for its main task, the creation of a constant traffic flow from earth to orbit at the lowest cost. The estimated cost of launching by the Pony-Cosmoport system should be at the level of $ 1,000 per kilogram. Which is many times cheaper than most modern carriers with a cost of launching from $ 3 to $ 7 thousand per kilogram.
In addition, the in-line launch system creates a demanded demand for the activities of orbital stations related to servicing traffic flows and installation, which will make it possible to transfer manned stations to self-financing, saving manned programs from being tied to state budgets.
And the plastic upper stages of the Ponies are to be used in orbital stations as raw materials for the production of rocket fuel or material for the installation of load-bearing structures, which will be the first step towards the development of industrial activities outside the earth.
Space transport fleet
The in-line launch system makes it possible to significantly reduce the cost of delivering cargo to orbital stations, but specialized orbital transport ships - "Orbital tugs", must put the satellites mounted in the Cosmoport into working orbits. On orbital tugs, unlike launch vehicles, not chemical engines that create the energy of a jet stream by burning fuel and an oxidizer should be used, but "Electric rocket engines" that use external energy supplied to the fuel in the form of an electric current coming from solar or nuclear generators … Electric rocket engines consume fuel 3, 15 times more economically than chemical ones. They have low power, but in space zero gravity, high power is not needed.
Now in space "Ionic" electric rocket engines are widespread, but their power is too small for transport ships, the thrust is only tenths of a gram. For orbital tugs, more powerful Plasma Thrusters should be used. Which, together with highly efficient "Film" solar batteries, will provide a sufficiently high thrust for towing cargo and flights between orbits in a reasonable timeframe, from several days to several months.
Another advantage of plasma engines is that they are potentially multi-fuel, capable of consuming any "working fluid" that can be controlled into the engine. Plasma engines can be fueled by any available substance, components of traditional chemical rocket propellants, water, or liquid gases, which makes them very convenient for space.
The transition to reusable orbital tugs with plasma engines will greatly reduce the cost of launching satellites into high orbits. And it will give other additional opportunities. Such as the ability to transport satellites to orbital stations for maintenance and back to working orbits, the ability to maintain constant transport links with other planets, and transport alien materials to orbital stations at low cost.
In contrast to modern orbital stages "Upper stages" on chemical fuel, which are mainly used for "One way" flights. Economical and reusable orbital tugs will connect the entire space constellation with permanent transport links operating at low cost.
"Orbital transport and cargo fleet" will make the development of new space programs much more accessible and cheap.
Powder, fuel and raw material base on the moon
At the first stages of the development of the group of orbital tugs, fuel for them will be delivered from the ground. But as the orbital transport system develops, the issue of switching to fuel of alien origin will become relevant. The transportation of materials by orbital tugs will cost dozens of cuts cheaper than launching from the ground, and fuel, the most actively consumed consumable in space, which by itself will push to switch to available extraterrestrial fuel sources as soon as the orbital transport system begins to grow.
The closest source of alien fuel and other resources to earth is the moon. The moon is in earth's orbit, it is much closer to the earth than asteroids and flights to it will not take much time. On the other hand, the moon has low gravity and no atmosphere, which greatly simplifies the introduction of cargo into orbit from this planet. There are now several approved projects for the production of liquid fuel on the moon. Lunar fuel can be liquid oxygen, which can be obtained from the lunar soil, water, from recently discovered ice deposits in the region of the lunar poles, or its decomposition products, hydrogen and oxygen.
The disadvantages of the adopted lunar fuel projects are that the production of oxygen from the soil or the decomposition of water requires a lot of energy. The useful release of oxygen from the soil, or the percentage of water ice in lunar deposits is not high. Accordingly, the production of liquid fuels is expensive.
In my scenario for the industrialization of space, it is supposed to use solid lunar soil as a fuel for plasma engines, in the form of a finely dispersed, free-flowing powder. The fuel for plasma engines can be any substance that can be supplied to the engine in a controlled manner, and it does not have to be a liquid, in the electric "Flame" of the plasma generator, any working fluid is converted into a gas with equal efficiency.
To adapt the engines and fuel systems of tugs to the consumption of "Mineral dust", their superficial, "Not fundamental" modification is sufficient. The potential ability of plasma engines to consume powder fuel components is clearly demonstrated by their commercial counterparts, plasma generators - "Plasmatrons" or "Electric burners" operating on powder components, which are used in powder metallurgy.
The production of powder, in contrast to liquid fuel components, does not require chemical processing of raw materials; simple mechanical grinding is sufficient. The crushers required for this have high productivity and low weight, they do not require large energy consumption, the rocky soil on the moon is ubiquitous and the efficiency of raw materials for crushing is one hundred percent.
The set of equipment for a powder fuel base should include several universal, remotely controlled robots "Centaurs". Light multipurpose all-terrain vehicles, equipped with an "Anthropomorphic" humanoid torso, capable of serving as vehicles and "Working hands". Several light crushers. Solar and nuclear generators for uninterrupted energy supply. And the Lunar Sling catapult, a specialized launch vehicle into orbit from the moon.
The lunar sling is a rotor similar to a helicopter, but with kilometer-long ribbons, instead of blades, at the ends of which an orbital speed is achieved, which on the moon is about 1700 meters per second. The cable catapult is a relatively light and technically simple device, it does not require fuel costs and is capable of providing the cargo flow of lunar raw materials into orbit in industrial volumes.
Lunar soil can be used not only as fuel for tugs, but also as a raw material for the production of liquid oxygen, ceramic and metal products at orbital stations.
The total mass of the equipment of the powder raw material base should be within 100 tons, the project cost should not exceed $ 10 billion, which is not a lot for an alien base project. But the lunar resource base will fully provide the near-Earth space group with relatively cheap alien fuel and mineral resources.
Support bases in low-earth orbit
At the moment, mankind has orbital stations, but they do not find any practical application and serve as space scientific laboratories.
In an industrial grouping, orbital stations will serve as important centers performing many functions, the scale and scope of activities of which will constantly expand.
Along with the emergence of an in-line launch system, orbital stations will take on the role of a transport and assembly center serving as an important component of the launch services industry.
With the advent of orbital tugs, orbital stations will become bases for transport ships and space platforms for repair and maintenance of satellites, taking on the role of "Space maintenance stations".
Along with the expansion of the industrial grouping at the orbital stations, activities related to the installation of various kinds of vehicles and structures will develop. That will give the orbital stations the function of "Space assembly sites".
Orbital stations will also become the main centers for the development of industrial activities outside the earth, taking on the role of "Space Production Centers".
Due to its location close to the earth and a near-earth commercial satellite constellation, under the protection of the earth's magnetic field, which will give relative radiation safety, near-earth manned stations will become the most important centers for the development of any human activity outside the earth. The main support bases of the near-earth space group.
Space production
Production activities in space are worth mentioning separately. The production of any useful materials and products will also develop and grow along with the development of the industrial group. Starting with the experimental production of fuel from plastic tanks of disposable rockets, simple materials and products from rocket parts, waste from manned stations, old satellites, space debris, and other secondary raw materials, free from the point of view of disposal costs. Space production will develop into a serial production capable of providing a space constellation with almost all low-tech "Iron", from structures to machines and spacecraft. Allowing to ensure the very reproduction of the space majority of the mass of the space group at the expense of extraterrestrial resources.
The development of space production equipment will go in line with adaptation to the specific conditions of space, such as an abundance of mineral and energy resources, but at the same time, high transport costs and severe mass shortages. New technologies will make it possible to more easily manipulate materials, significantly reduce the number of technological operations, make equipment simple and versatile, which ultimately will drastically reduce the weight of the production infrastructure. A well-known example of such "Adaptive technologies" in production is a 3G printer, but printers, despite their multifunctionality, have low productivity, the bulk of products will be produced by faster, in-line methods.
At the first stages of development of an industrial group, production activities will be experimental, "Experimental Industrial". Along with the emergence of large projects and infrastructure systems, space production will be developed to serial production, but will remain auxiliary. At the stage of a qualitative transition of the space industry from servicing near-earth commercial vehicles to space colonies and the global space industry, production activity from auxiliary will become the main one. And the further growth of the space group will go mainly along the lines of industrial colonization of space.
Serving space industry
The main practical task of the industrial constellation will be the maintenance of the near-earth system of commercial spacecraft. The industrial constellation will be part of the global system of space services, as a "Second level" service sector, servicing spacecraft providing direct space services. The activities of the industrial group will allow many times to reduce the cost of launch services and will provide new opportunities for the development of space systems.
Therefore, from an economic point of view, the funds invested in the industrial group will return in the form of a decrease in the cost of services for commercial vehicles and the growth of the space market. The development of the industrial group will go in conjunction with large commercial projects. And the new opportunities that the industrial group will provide will contribute to the development of new areas of commercial astronautics, such as satellite communication systems of new generations and space solar energy.
Satellite cellular communication
Reducing the cost of launching and the emergence of the possibility of installation in space, which will provide a continuous launch system, will allow the development of new generation satellite communication systems capable of receiving calls from cell phones and broadcasting directly to user receivers, without intermediate terrestrial terminals and repeaters.
Today's satellites are too weak to replace ground-based cell towers and broadcast directly to personal receivers. Direct communication via satellites is possible, but through expensive special terminals, which reduces its consumption. Due to the narrowness of the market, satellite communications are expensive, although satellite services, for example, when using the international Internet, are themselves quite cheap for mass consumers.
With the advent of the orbital spaceport, it will be possible to mount satellite platforms in orbit with film solar panels and high-power lattice antennas. High energy power, high sensitivity and transmitting power of lattice antennas, satellite platforms, will allow transferring the main information traffic to satellites. At the same time, satellite services will be cheaper than ground infrastructure.
The development of "Satellite cellular communications" will make communication services widely available and will greatly increase investments in the orbital segment of the satellite communications industry. A multiple increase in turnover will give a corresponding increase in the scale of space activities.
Space solar energy
Thermal power plants that use fossil fuels form the backbone of the global energy sector. Fossil fuel resources are nearing depletion, and the use of fossil organic fuels and uranium, on a global scale, poses great environmental risks. The resources of clean hydropower are also practically depleted, and wind power is ineffective. One of the alternatives is the transition to the energy of thermonuclear fusion, which has fewer risks than traditional nuclear power and its raw materials are not depleted, but experiments on controlled thermonuclear fusion do not allow us to count on confident prospects in the development of this area. And clean thermonuclear energy on the lunar "Helium - 3" is also not an alternative, it is practically impossible to master the technology of "Combustion" of this isotope in the coming decades.
Switching to solar energy can be a sure alternative. The sun is a natural thermonuclear reactor in the solar system, its energy is clean and inexhaustible. But solar energy is relatively diffuse, which makes it difficult to use it on an industrial scale. Modern solar generators are mostly low-power auxiliary ones. In space conditions, in the absence of the action of gravity and air, it is possible to mount extended ultralight structures with large areas and low weight. In space, nothing prevents the installation of industrial capacity solar power plants that can become the basis of earth's energy.
There are two potential directions for the development of space generators. Power generation from solar cells, similar to modern solar generators for satellites and space stations, is supported by most analysts. And heat generators, which convert heat from sunlight into electricity, concentrated by a system of concave mirrors made of mirror plastic film. In my opinion, heat generators are more preferable, plastic film and turbines are cheaper than any photovoltaic cells, heat generators have higher efficiency, and in general, heat generators are more convenient for industrial facilities.
Heat generators have their drawbacks, they are difficult to cool in space, where only heat is removed by radiation. But the problem of reducing the weight of the cooling circuits of promising heat generators is technically solvable by increasing the operating temperature of the turbines. There are experimental developments in this direction.
Space power plants, with heat generators and plastic film concentrating mirrors, can have a mirror area of 2.5 to 4 square kilometers, an electrical power of about a gigawatt, a weight of 100 to 300 tons, and a cost in the range of a billion dollars. In terms of the cost-effectiveness ratio, space power plants will be comparable to nuclear power plants, but unlike them, they will be completely environmentally friendly. And, in addition, as the technologies of space power plants are developed, the cost of space solar energy will fall and will drop to the level of modern hydropower.
There were projects for orbital solar power plants before, but their implementation was hampered by the high cost of space transport and the lack of the necessary technologies. Thanks to the services of transport infrastructure and orbital assembly sites that are part of the industrial group, the construction of orbital power plants will become technically possible and affordable. By the beginning of the implementation of the first commercial energy projects, the necessary technologies will undergo practical testing on generators for powerful orbital tugs and manned stations.
With a low price and lack of constraints to further growth, space solar power will quickly dominate the global energy sector, displacing fossil-fueled power plants. The development of the energy sector by the space services industry will make astronautics one of the basic, vital sectors of the world industry. At the same time, the turnover of the space group will increase to billions, the scale and power of the space group will grow hundreds and thousands of times. The development of the energy sector will allow the space industry to gain sufficient power for the transition to the colonization of space.
Extraction of rare metals on asteroids
Another area of practical space is the extraction of precious metals and rare earth elements on asteroids. This area is of commercial importance, and it will become one of the main areas of practical development of extraterrestrial resources. Precious metals and rare earths are strategic raw materials for the electronics industry. The industry associated with their extraction in space will not be as large-scale as space energy, but it will contribute to the development of progress in the field of high technologies, global cybernation and industrial robotization, both on earth and in space.
The transition to the colonization of space
After the saturation of the space energy market, which will occur approximately 30, 40 years after the beginning of the development of the industrial group, the space industry will gain sufficient power to move on to the next stage of growth - "Industrial colonization of space".
At this stage, the industrial group will move from servicing the near-earth system of commercial spacecraft to directly providing the earth's industry with space raw materials. And the very industrial grouping from an appendage of the space services industry will begin to turn into a system of space manufacturing enterprises scattered across the nearby planets and the asteroid belt.
By this time, infrastructure transport systems of a new generation will appear, such as powerful orbital cable catapults, or electromagnetic guns, located at an altitude of 120 kilometers, outside the atmosphere. The cost of launching into orbit and landing with these systems will be comparable to the air transportation of our time. Orbital transport systems, from several tugs, will develop into a powerful cargo fleet capable of providing transport links between the earth, the orbits of nearby planets and industrial bases in the asteroid belt.
The space industry will mainly supply metals to the earth, in the form of standardized profiles, sheets, rods, or ingots. For finished products, automobiles, airplanes, various machinery or consumer goods, space raw materials will be brought to the ground. The raw material orientation of the first generation space industry will reduce capital costs and increase the efficiency of production centers. But as the development proceeds, the level of completeness of space production products will increase. And, in addition, the space industrial grouping already in the first stages of growth will be able to almost completely self-replicate due to alien raw materials. Simplified and adaptive technologies will make it possible to produce in space the main part of structures, mechanisms and other low-tech "Iron". From the ground,only science-intensive products such as electronics, instruments or precision mechanics will be delivered to space.
The space industry will supply the earth mainly with cheap raw materials, but consume expensive science-intensive products. Therefore, with the colonization of outer space, just as with any other colonization, the growth of the welfare of the metropolis will occur due to the expansion of the colonies. The more the space industry grows, the greater the share of the earth's industry will be focused on high technology.
And since the growth of the space industry will be fast and exponential, the period of growth from the first experimental bases to the global scale will take place within several decades, then the growth of the earth's economy will also be rapid. With the beginning of the colonization of space, humanity will step over the limits of industrial growth in Earth conditions and begin a new economic blitzkrieg. Which will begin to decline only when the entire solar system is assimilated by people, the economic and industrial power of mankind will grow thousands of times and mankind will move to a qualitatively new stage of development, will no longer be an earthly, but a cosmic civilization.
The consequences of space colonization for humanity
Colonization of space will turn the earth from an isolated inhabited island of the solar system, in which humanity is already getting cramped, into a metropolis of numerous space colonies. After the transition to the colonization of space, the growth of the dirtiest and most resource-intensive areas of industry, such as mining and metallurgical, will go beyond the boundaries of the earth. The earth's industry will be focused mainly on the production of science-intensive, high-tech products, which will turn the earth into the "Silicon Valley of the solar system."
Further growth in prosperity on earth will come at the expense of thousands of automated production centers scattered throughout the solar system. Which will produce industrial goods, and increase their numbers almost without the participation of people. The resources of outer space, unlimited by earthly standards, will remove the restrictions for further industrial growth for at least several next generations, and they will surely be enough until mankind goes to the stage of stellar expansion, which will expand the boundaries of humanity's capabilities almost to infinity.
The orientation of the world industry towards high-tech products and the removal of the growth limits that will come with the colonization of space will cause an increase in the well-being and literacy of the entire earth's population. Universal literacy will cause an increase in progress in science, accelerating the already rapid race of technologies, will trigger a series of new social transformations that will make life more free and secure, will lead to the growth of culture and creative energy in the world community, and will improve the overall quality of thinking and the quality of life.
With the beginning of the colonization of space, such problems of our time as poverty, ethnic and political strife caused by the struggle for resources and spheres of influence, the threat of global economic stagnation, or even a civilizational decline with a rollback to the Middle Ages, will be forgotten. All the energy of mankind will be directed into outer space, where there are no restrictions for development and nothing to share. The modern premonition of a global depression, which is now in the air, will be replaced by a series of breakthroughs that follow one after another and expectations of an imminent transition into a futuristic space age.
The transition of humanity to the stage of cosmic civilization will lead it into a new era. Just like half a millennium ago, the maritime expansion of several European states and the international trade and flow production that appeared with it, gave rise to the transition of mankind to the industrial era. Several centuries of industrial growth raised the level of development of civilization so much that for the inhabitants of the Middle Ages it would seem an incredible miracle.
The upcoming colonization of space, like the sea expansion of the past, will pull a chain of technological and scientific leaps that will cause a qualitative rise in the level of civilizational development of mankind to a height that may now seem fantastic. But unlike the previous global civilizational leap, the industrial revolution, the upcoming transition to the space age will happen much faster, thanks to the current speed of progress. Residents of the current generation will be able to feel the results of space expansion.
From space services to space colonies
And at the present stage, the colonization of space is not a fantasy, but a direction of the economy. Practical space exploration began with the launch of the first commercial satellite, and now commercial space exploration is a global industry. It is still far from full-scale colonization of space, but the scenario I have proposed for the development of the space industry makes it possible to make a natural transition from servicing satellites to global industrial colonization of space, with which mankind will enter the space age.
Nikolay Agapov