Earlier this month, we told you about an asteroid that flew dangerously close to our planet. This has left many people wondering what we can do in case the space visitor really falls on our heads.
While our natural tendencies will push us to scream in fear or appeal to all known gods, there is actually quite a lot we can do to prepare ourselves, respond appropriately, and perhaps even stop a threatening object that the Earth might collide with.
Do not panic
Asteroids and comets are a threat. They are in fact real and dangerous for our planet. Nevertheless, all this time, scientists are not idle. NASA has charted the position and trajectories of 90% of the largest near-Earth objects, that is, those with diameters equal to or greater than 1 km. Impact from any such object could cause worldwide devastation, global cooling and mass extinction.
The good news is that none of them appear to pose a threat, so at least on this front we can rest easy. Scientists know about 15,000 near-Earth objects out of a probable 1,000,000. In addition, both NASA and the European Space Agency have programs dedicated to detecting as many of them as possible.
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Small Object Collision Threat
Currently, NASA has set a goal to detect 90% of near-Earth objects larger than 140 meters. These objects are of greater concern, as only about 8,000 of them have been discovered so far. All of them range in size from 100 to 1000 meters. If one of these objects collides with land, it can create a crater the size of a small city. If such an object falls into the ocean, it will cause a tsunami.
Smaller objects won't be too dangerous if dropped into the water, but they can cause problems on land. They will most likely burn up in the atmosphere, but the shockwave can still be very dangerous. The Chelyabinsk meteorite, for example, which fell in Russia in 2013, damaged more than 7,200 buildings and injured 1,491 people. But he was only 20 meters in diameter!
Initiatives such as Asteroid Day were created to raise awareness of such a hazard.
Asteroid Apophis
While the threat undoubtedly exists, we have a chance we will never face it. The largest object that will fly near our planet is the asteroid Apophis. It will first approach Earth in 2029, and then again in 2036. There is only one in 250,000 chance that it will hit Earth, but the first close encounter may slightly alter its orbit, making it more dangerous.
Rescue options
But if we detect a near-Earth object heading towards our planet, will we have the opportunity to defend ourselves? A group of experts discussed this topic last December and they concluded that humanity is currently not ready to destroy the asteroid or avoid such threats.
Our main enemy is time. Perhaps we could prepare a technology capable of destroying or deflecting a celestial body, but we are unlikely to have enough time to launch it. Scientists are currently studying the best strategies for dealing with asteroids in order to have a plan in place to protect humanity.
Until now, scientists are discussing several options for salvation. Among them - the nuclear option, the ability to use lasers to hook an object and drag it further away from Earth, or a fast rocket that simply crashes into it. But we can't just use one of them. There are many variables to consider, such as the size of an object, its density, distance from us, and so on, before developing contingency plans.
Dr. Katherine Plesko said during the conference that scientists need this data before starting calculations and creating protection. But they can only be obtained when the object is approaching.
However, the lack of protection does not make us helpless. NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have already launched three simulated scenarios of how we can intervene if we find ourselves in such danger. Both agencies have generated several scenarios for potential future use. This ensures that they have information that will be critical in such an emergency.
Can a movie script be used?
Some of these plans may seem useless, but remember that real life is not like Abyss Impact or Armageddon. We will not be able to fly in a spaceship to a meteorite and leave a bomb on it to detonate it at the last second. If we can even land the crew, it will be too late, since the meteorite will be very close.
In addition, the landing of the crew would be incredibly difficult. Asteroids and comets on a cosmic scale are tiny. Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko, for example, has a gravitational acceleration almost a million times less than on Earth. Landing the Philae probe on it was a phenomenal feat of engineering, and even so, things didn't go exactly as planned. The probe bounced three times before landing.
So landing on an object that threatens us and sending a group of unprepared civilians to it to carry out an explosion is not such a good idea, despite the fact that it works in films. This could lead to the destruction of the space station or the disintegration of an asteroid, so that eventually hundreds of fragments would begin to approach the Earth in unpredictable orbits.
What to do?
There is no reason to lose sleep and constantly fear the possibility of a potential asteroid impact, but at the same time, we cannot bury our heads in the sand. So what can we all do to prepare? Worry less about stocking the required products and do more to raise awareness of the problem.
Ideally, scientists want to create a special space observatory to observe these objects and a rocket (or even several), ready to take off in case of need. All this, of course, is too expensive, but this is about preparing for the salvation of all mankind.
Disaster films always show that humanity comes together and works hard even in the face of impossible disagreements. Perhaps this is the most realistic part of such paintings.
Anna Pismenna