More and more soldiers have appeared in the Arctic lately. Canada, Russia, the United States, Norway and Denmark hope for huge reserves of oil and natural gas beneath the melting ice and plan to protect their share of the minerals from the grabbing hands.
Greenpeace video about Arctic oil
If the worst scenarios of military strategists come true, then one of the future major battles will take place at the North Pole, one day filmmakers instead of "west-erns" will shoot "north-erns".
Those for whom global warming is a settled issue include, in addition to some scientists, and the soldiers who have gathered around the "white cap" of the globe. They are already seriously preparing for the Cold War, second in line.
If during the first cold war the world sometimes got too hot, the new cold war will clearly live up to its name: this war will freeze. It's about the Arctic. About the gradual discovery of an incredible treasury of minerals and new sea routes, which you can only dream of.
Or agree, or … what?
Promotional video:
In Arctic terms, this area has recently been overcrowded with soldiers. And experts believe it will get worse. Norway hosted one of the largest Arctic exercises of all time last month. The aim of the exercise, with the participation of 16.3 thousand soldiers from 14 countries, was to learn how to cope on the ice with everything from real battles to terrorist threats. There were also casualties: five Norwegian soldiers were killed in the wreckage of a C-130 Herkules plane that fell near Kebnekaise, Sweden's highest mountain.
The United States, Canada and Denmark had conducted exercises under the same conditions two months earlier. And in May, an event is to take place that has never happened in the history of the Arctic: all the main "players" in this area - Canada, the United States, Russia, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Finland - will meet at a Canadian military base to discuss security issues.
All of this does not mean that a battle at the North Pole could actually happen. But as the number of ships and companies heading to the far north for oil and gas reserves increases, there is a growing need to control borders and military forces to intervene in border disputes.
According to an official US geological survey, about 13% of the still undiscovered oil and 30% of the equally well-hidden natural gas are in the Arctic. And the fact is already taken for granted that until 2030, thanks to the melting of ice, waterways that are still inaccessible can be opened.
Arctic ice parting
Dealing with climate change is a difficult topic for policymakers. However, this does not in any way stop the armies of the countries that are gazing intently at the north and developing detailed scenarios for its conquest.
The main bets on the Arctic were made by Russia, Canada and the United States. The United States, a little tired of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has now pushed its northern forces into the background. Nevertheless, with a fleet of submarines capable of sailing under the ice for months, the United States is still one step ahead.
Russia, much of which is located in the Arctic Circle, is now clearly the most active in its attempts to become the number one power. Rob Huebert, professor at the University of Calgary, Canada, points out that the Russians have fundamentally reorganized their military arsenal in the Arctic and have significantly increased control over the territory with bombers and submarines.
According to Hubert, this forced the other Arctic powers (Norway, Denmark and Canada) to resume their military exercises, which have not been conducted in this area since the collapse of the Soviet Union. “A huge region that used to be frozen in ice is now opening up to the world,” Hubert told AP. "All the circumstances indicate one thing: the military presence in this area will continue to grow."
Armies are not the main risk
After scientists announced that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, the US Army announced its three-stage plan back in 2009. This plan should increase the willingness of soldiers not only to identify areas where the risk of conflict is highest, but also to negotiate spheres of influence with all states in this area.
“We want to have everything under control here at all times,” said Ian Johnson, captain of USS Connecticut, one of the most advanced Arctic submarines, which arrived directly at the North Pole last year. “Our interests in the Arctic have never weakened,” he added.
However, the Americans are still ill-prepared for large-scale intervention in the Arctic. It featured simulations done by the United States Naval Academy. The academy's report, released last month, stated that the navy is "not sufficiently prepared for a long-term operation in the Arctic" because it lacks ships capable of breaking through ice and providing forward bases.
But, attention! This is far from the danger of an armed conflict. It is much more likely that armies will one day have to react to some kind of disaster. Heather Conley, head of the European program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in London, warns that armies must be prepared for massive rescue efforts.
“Not war, but natural and man-made disasters, such as a shipwreck or an environmental accident, present the greatest threat at the moment. And this threat will increase as research and other human activities in the Arctic increase at a sharp pace. Militarization does not pose such a risk as the likely inability to respond to a disaster in such harsh conditions,”the expert said.