Scientists at the California Institute of Technology have concluded that high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can suppress the formation of stratocumulus clouds. This species, which forms a solid gray blanket in the lower atmosphere, reflects large amounts of solar radiation back into space. Their absence will provoke frequent occurrence of heat and droughts hazardous to health. Article published in Nature Geoscience.
Researchers have modeled the effect of greenhouse gases on the dynamics of clouds in Stratocumulus translucidus in subtropical regions using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method. The approach is to simulate turbulent flows, which ignores the effect of small-scale eddies. As a result, the system of Navier-Stokes differential equations describing the motion of a Newtonian fluid is simplified, and the amount of computational resources required for calculating the complex geometry of flows is reduced.
It turned out that when the level of carbon dioxide exceeds 1200 parts per million, stratocumulus clouds become unstable and collapse to form scattered clouds. This causes the Earth's surface temperature to rise by eight degrees Celsius across the globe and 10 degrees Celsius in the subtropics. According to experts, the lower limit of the carbon dioxide concentration at which Stratocumulus translucidus begins to disappear can be reached in the current century.
It is known that human activities through the burning of fossil fuels have contributed to an increase in carbon dioxide concentration from 280 to 400 ppm. According to a study by scientists at Cardiff University, by 2100, if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues, the concentration of carbon dioxide will reach 930 parts per million.
In July 2018, climate scientists at Monash University in Australia warned of a rise in tropical and subtropical heat deaths by 2080. The reason is anthropogenic climate change, which will lead to an increase in extreme weather events.