A new study has shown that within 120 years, artificial intelligence can take away all the work that a person does. This includes, among other things, intellectual and even creative professions.
Every year, research emerges demonstrating the rapid development of AI, as well as the possible threat to millions of people associated with the loss of jobs. Now experts representing the Institute for the Future of Humanity at Oxford University have decided to conduct a comprehensive study. Its results are presented on arXiv.org, and a synopsis is available in New Scientist.
A survey of 352 world experts on artificial intelligence was conducted. Asian scientists turned out to be more "optimistic" in their forecasts of AI development than their North American counterparts. According to the first, artificial intelligence will surpass humans in solving most problems within 30 years. North Americans have reported over 70 years. This speaks of cultural differences. But, in general, scientists from different parts of the Earth highly appreciated the pace of development of AI. In their opinion, with a 50% probability, artificial intelligence will replace humans in all spheres of activity within 120 years.
Translators will no longer be needed by 2024: then AI will be better able to handle these tasks. By 2026, he will also confidently write simple essays. Truck drivers will no longer be needed by 2027, and retailers will have the same fate by 2031. In the middle of the 21st century, robots will confidently perform surgical operations. It is noteworthy that AI will be able to master even creative professions. According to the study, almost all fiction by the end of the 40s will also be written special programs.
Ilya Vedmedenko