Read part one here.
The isolation of life on Mars can quickly create claustrophobia and irritability among settlers. The cramped living conditions, the precarious position of local authorities, the arrival of the ship from Earth only seven months later - under such conditions, civil war, anarchy and even cannibalism can break out in the Martian colonies, given the general shortage of resources. Something similar has already happened in our history - in the North American colonies of Roanoke, Jamestown, in which conditions, compared to the Martian ones, were even too paradise [Roanoke and Jamestown are the first English settlements in North America; one of the settler groups of the Roanoke colony mysteriously disappeared - approx. transl.].
Some of them, of course, will withstand the harsh conditions of life on Mars for decades or longer, but as Musk told me, for a civilization characterized by genetic diversity to emerge, a million more people will need to be relocated to Mars. “But even with a million settlers, one more condition is needed - a high degree of labor productivity, since an industrial base must be created on Mars. It will be necessary to organize the extraction and processing of minerals, and in much more difficult conditions than on Earth. Trees don't grow there. There is no oxygen, nitrogen and oil,”Musk says.
I asked him how quickly the population of the Martian colony would grow to one million. “In order to increase the number of inhabitants of the Martian colony to a million people, ten thousand rockets will have to be sent to Mars, provided that no more than a hundred people can be sent there at one time. To supply the settlers, it is necessary to organize the dispatch of a large volume of goods; moreover, the ratio of the mass of the payload per person will be very high. Each person will need another ten missiles with cargo; thus, the number of cargo flights will increase to one hundred thousand, and will have to use giant spaceships."
But Musk reassured me: this whole project can be completed in one century. It is said that he already has a plan for a giant spacecraft called the Mars Colonial Transposter. Designing a ship is not difficult, but the real challenge lies in keeping costs down so that these ships can be built in large numbers. But Musk also has an answer to this problem: he says that he is already developing a reusable rocket that could fly to Mars, safely return to Earth and be ready for a new start in an hour.
“Now we are building a rocket for each launch. It's like building an airplane for every flight,”Musk says. So far, progress in creating reusable rockets has been small, but one of the prototypes has already been able to climb a thousand meters and make a soft landing. According to the businessman, reusable rockets should reduce the cost of the flight by two orders of magnitude, that is, up to ten dollars per pound of weight. Thanks to this improvement, launch sites will turn, so to speak, into "machine guns" capable of continuously "firing" spacecraft towards Mars. It is with this technology that Musk hopes to launch a hundred thousand ships.
True, one must not forget about unforeseen political cataclysms, such as 1914, which can occur within one century. But the game is worth the candle: a million people on Mars! Sounds like science fiction in the techno style - it will be even cooler than the prophecies of futurologist Ray Kurzweil. At the same time, the appearance of SpaceX itself is fantastic. After talking with Musk, I wanted to look around the rocket factory, the interior of which resembles a Gothic cathedral. And so, I walk past rows of chrome rocket engines, glowing in the bluish neon light.
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My attention was attracted by the large white elongated structures, more like grain elevators. Technicians swarmed around like ants, guided by managers from glazed rooms. Imagine a workshop that resembles the workshop of Santa Claus, set up by James Cameron, and people scurry about in sterile overalls, as if dancing to electronic music. Just think, twelve years ago this whole buzzing hive - a large workshop for assembling spaceships - did not exist anywhere except the head of Elon Musk, staying there in the form of an obscure idea that excited the synapses of his brain.
I can't even imagine how SpaceX will be doing in a hundred years - who am I? Probably, by that time, Mask will be considered a seer, a man of action, and in the annals of space research he will not be equal. But it is quite possible that some complications may arise. Musk's bold rush to Mars may turn into a tragedy, or even go into the category of the same unrealizable ideas as cold thermonuclear fusion and the like. Musk could be the cultural phenomenon that personifies our American hangover since the end of the Apollo program. Musk will become the new Icarus.
I asked him if he understands that his project is perhaps still in its infancy, and he, Mask, will have to pass the baton to someone else as a result of his death or old age? "Of course I understand. I'm ready for this. I think about this a lot. I create a world in which I try to maximize the likelihood that SpaceX will live without me,”he answered me. I pointed to the photographs of his five sons on the wall: "Pass the baton to them?" To this, Musk replied that before he was going to transfer cases to a special institution, or several at once, but now he believes that the influence of the family gives him stability: “I just do not want the project to be under the control of some other private joint stock company, which is going to skim the cream off it in the short term. It would be awful."
Fear about SpaceX's future and its noble mission surfaced again after I asked Musk if he would fly to Mars himself. “I would fly, but there is a high probability of death, and therefore I do not want to put the existence of the company at risk. I will fly only when I am sure that my death will not affect the main goals of the company. " In some way, he reminded me of the biblical Noah: Musk is also obsessed with building a large ship, but only a space ship that will protect humanity from a global catastrophe. However, Elon himself sees in himself a new Moses - a man who blazed a path through the desert (not being afraid of "huge expenses" as Kepler put it in a letter to Galileo), but he himself never reached the Promised Land.
Before leaving the SpaceX office, I asked Musk about the future of space exploration. Elon declares that a million earthlings will live on Mars, so I wanted to learn from him about the future prospects of mankind, and I asked him a question: "Will we fly to the stars?"
“Getting to another star system is not easy. For example, Alpha Centauri is four light years distant from us, so if you move at a speed of ten percent of the speed of light, then the entire flight will take forty light years. At the same time, the speed of movement is uneven: first you have to accelerate at a speed of 20-30 percent of the speed of light, and then, if you do not want to slip past the target, you need to slow down,”Musk said and imitated the sound of a spaceship passing by.
I asked him to be more specific, but the answer was: “This idea is difficult to implement. With the current lifespan of a human being, spacecraft designed for several generations will be required. In addition, an anti-matter engine is needed because it has a higher specific thrust. This is quite possible, but the speed is still insufficient."
“In general, you are skeptical,” I note. He thought about it and then replied: “No, I'm not saying that I am skeptical about traveling to the stars. If we can establish a colony on Mars, then we can colonize the entire solar system, because by that time we will have created a powerful economy that can support space travel.
A person will fly to the satellites of Jupiter (at least, he will definitely reach the outer ones), and, probably, will fly to Titan, the satellite of Saturn, and then to asteroids. As soon as humanity has a powerful economy that allows launching rockets to Mars, it will be able to conquer the entire solar system. But the most important thing is to carry out the Martian project. As soon as a person can fly to other stellar systems, then he will build a multiplanetary civilization. But this is the next step."
It is now clear why NASA allowed Musk to take up manned flights. Yes, he's designing a big rocket. But much more important is that he is trying to revive interest in space exploration and thereby sets an example for all those who believe in the cosmic predestination of mankind. And Musk starts preaching. He says that the life of mankind is doomed if man remains on Earth. He calls us to follow him - there, to unknown borders covered with darkness. He promises a miracle.
Ross Andersen