For the last twenty years, the population of the Earth has been frightened by the coming climatic disasters. “We will all die if we don’t do ……”, and the following are the requirements that must be done in order to avoid the impending disaster. And obedient humanity, creaking and struggling, is trying to fulfill. Huge resources are spent, money is invested in “green energy, and the scientific world, which feeds on this, puts forward more and more horror stories. Some have managed to win the Nobel Prize. And around all this, numerous research institutes feed, industrialists get fabulous profits from the introduction of new products, which, in their opinion, should prevent the impending apocalypse.
But is all this really so? What is it? Another relatively honest way of taking money from a gullible population, or another global adventure.
Below, dear readers of my site, I suggest you familiarize yourself with one of the works of L. N. Gumilyov, which was published back in 1972. Read to the end and then a lot will become clear and understandable for you.
Well, let's get started
Despite the fact that the Aral Sea and the Caspian Sea lie at the same latitude, their levels fluctuate according to the opposition rule: if the Caspian Sea level rises, then the Aral Sea level decreases, and vice versa. The explanation is simple: the Aral Sea is fed by the Syrdarya and Amu Darya, which originate in the mountains of the arid zone, and the Volga carries moisture into the Caspian Sea, the drainage basin of which lies in the humid zone. The presence of opposition shows that the increased moisture in both zones also obeys the rule of opposition, but, in addition, sometimes there is a simultaneous drop in the levels of the Caspian and Aral. Therefore, not two, but three options for increased moisture are possible, and the latter leads to the fact that moisture is not poured into inland water bodies.
Is this related to global climate fluctuations? Apparently not, because during the modern geological era, the Earth's heat balance has remained relatively stable. After all, if the Earth's temperature rises by only 2 °, then all the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will melt, and this is by no means observed. This means that we must look not for global, but for zonal patterns.
The total amount of moisture poured onto the Eurasian continent changes so little that these changes should be neglected. But the distribution of precipitation changes quite significantly, and the influence of the change affects the entire surface of the great continent, from the Arctic Ocean to the Himalayas. The reason for this phenomenon is the change in the direction of the cyclones. Above the North Pole is a tower of cold air - the polar maximum. This air sometimes, flowing from the tower, enters the territory of Russia and brings with it dry cold weather, however, much less unpleasant than the humid and cold Arctic air that comes to us from the North Atlantic Ocean and brings chilly drizzling rains.
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Another aerial tower - the tropic maximum - rises over the Sahara and Arabia. It arose in a purely mechanical way, due to the rotation of the Earth, and its base is eroded from below, at the surface of the hot stones and sands of the great African desert. Unlike the polar one, this airy giant is mobile. It is constantly shifting to the north, then back to its place, and the path of the low-pressure hollow, a kind of air gorge, through which the moist air of the Atlantic Ocean flows from the Azores, reaching the middle of Asia, changes. Thus, Krasnoyarsk receives the same amount of precipitation per year as in Tartu, despite the fact that these cities are one far away and the other close to the sea.
So, as already mentioned, three variants of humidification of the Eurasian continent are possible, depending on the degree of activity of the tropic maximum, which increases simultaneously with an increase in solar activity and decreases in the years of a quiet Sun. The changes on the Sun do not affect the polar tower of air, because the sun's rays only glide over the surface of the polar ice, but on the other hand “hit” the tropical zones of the Earth with all their might. Therefore, the decisive moment in those changes not only in the climate, but even in the simple weather, on which our Sunday rest or the expansion of the flu epidemic depends, is space, the influence of which on our daily life has long been underestimated.
Let's see how air and moisture behave during this or that solar activity
With a relatively low solar activity, cyclones sweep over the Mediterranean and Black Seas, over the North Caucasus and Kazakhstan and are delayed by the mountain peaks of the Altai and Tien Shan, where moisture is rained. In this case, the Balkhash and the Aral Sea are filled with water, fed by the steppe rivers, and the Caspian Sea, fed by 81% by the Volga, dries up. In the forest belt, rivers calmly flow in their channels, but the swamps are overgrown with grass and turn into meadows; there are strong winters with little snow, and the heat reigns in summer. In the north, the White and Barents Seas are no longer free of ice; permafrost grows, raising the level of tundra lakes, and the sun's rays, penetrating through the cold air, greatly heat the Earth's surface (since there are no clouds, the insolation is huge). This is perhaps the optimal position for a person and the development of productive forces in all three zones.
But the solar activity has intensified, the trough of cyclones has moved to the north and is already passing over France, Central Europe, Central Russia and Siberia. Then the steppes dry up, the Balkhash and the Aral Sea grow shallow, the Volga turns into a turbid, turbulent stream, the Caspian Sea swells. Forests are swamped in the Volga-Oka interfluve, abundant snow falls in winter and thaws are frequent; in summer, it constantly sows a light rain, bringing crop failures and diseases.
Diagram of the movement of the cyclonic center of atmospheric action in Europe:
1 - north location, 2 - mid location, 3 - south location.
Solar activity has increased, and now cyclones are rushing through Scotland, Scandinavia to the White and Kara Seas. The steppe turns into a desert, and only the remnants of half-buried cities suggest that culture once flourished here. Dry winds from the dried steppe burst into the forest zone and bring dust into the forests. The Volga is shallowing again, the Caspian Sea enters its shores, leaving a layer of black, sticky mud on the drying bottom. In the north, the White, Barents and even Kara seas are melting: vapors rise from them, blocking the Sun from the Earth, where it becomes cold, damp and uncomfortable. Permafrost, which is a water-resistant horizon, recedes into the depths of the earth. This means that the phytocinosis feeding the deer changes, and after that the waters from the shallow lakes of the tundra are absorbed into the thawed earth. The fish perishes in them, and hunger reigns in the tundra.
At the same time, in the third variant of the passage of cyclones, its North Iranian branch is formed, when part of the Atlantic moisture sweeps over Italy, Greece and partially lingers over the mountains of Armenia, and the rest of the moisture falls on the slopes of the Pamirs. This water flows into the Amu Darya and partly compensates for the evaporation of the Aral Sea, but other lakes of the Eurasian system - Balkhash, Zaysan, Ubsu-Nur - are shallow, and this gives an additional correction for the model of humidification of the Eurasian continent outlined by us.
And here, taking into account the current natural situation, one can use both history and archeology. It is known that at the end of the 6th century, the Persian Shah Khosroi Anushirvan built the famous, still preserved wall near the city of Derbent, which blocked the passage between the Caucasian ridge and the Caspian Sea. The eastern end of the wall went into the sea. Now, in calm weather, from a boat through the water, one can see huge slabs of the Sassanian time, already displaced from their places and lying on the rocky bottom of the bottom. The work on the study of the underwater part of the wall was carried out by the author in 1961 and showed that the wall was laid directly on the rock, without adding a breakwater. Thus, the level of the Caspian Sea was established in the VI century. He stood at an absolute mark of minus 32 m, i.e. 4 m lower than in our time.
In the following centuries, a transgression of the Caspian began, rising by 13 m, to an absolute mark of minus 19 m. This mark was established by extensive archaeological exploration along the northern coast, where fragments of ceramics of the 10th century. found in many places, but not lower than the specified absolute mark. The maximum of this New Caspian transgression dates back to the end of the XIP - the beginning of the XIV century. and is confirmed by the data of Persian geographers. They, observing the advance of the sea, wrote that it covered the port of Abaskun with waves, explaining this by a change in the current of the Amu Darya, which began to flow into the Caspian, and therefore “the water flooded part of the continent to equalize the inflow and outflow”. The fact is noted correctly, but the explanation is made at the level of science of the XIV century. Now we can find a more comprehensive one, since the level of the Caspian is regulated not by the Amu Darya, but by the Volga.
Since the XIV century. the sea began to recede by the 16th century. reached an absolute mark of minus 29 m. Then, at the end of the 18th century, it rose to an absolute mark of minus 22 m and again dropped to minus 28 m. Therefore, we have a natural barometer that allows us to determine the increase and decrease in moisture and date it with a tolerance of plus - minus 50 years.
Khazaria suffered the most from the New Caspian transgression. The Khazars lived in the lower reaches of the Volga, in the delta and its floodplain. They were engaged not so much in animal husbandry as in viticulture and fishing. Calm channels among green meadows and thickets of reeds fed the large population and the capital of the state - Itil, located on an island formed by the Volga and its eastern channel - Akhtuba. With a solid economic base, the Khazars dominated the sparse population of the dry steppes that surrounded the lower Volga. But the rising sea flooded their land and forced the last Khazars to move to high places. Khazar cemeteries and earthen floors of their dwellings have survived only on the Berovsky hills. It was they who made it possible to restore the picture of the prosperity and destruction of the "Russian Atlantis". When the sea slept again and the Volga delta became habitable,the descendants of the Khazars who returned to it began to call themselves the Astrakhan Tatars.
The noted transfers of cyclonic moisture were reflected in the same way on nomadic cattle breeding, and hence on the power of the Golden Horde and the Nogai hordes. The reduction of herds and herds during dry periods weakened them, as these ethnic groups adapted to the conditions of the luxurious wet steppe.
So, the interaction of the history of nature and the history of people is the interference of two forms of development of matter, which is carried out in the systems of ethnic groups and their historical destinies. Natural phenomena affect the economic life of peoples; Abundance or impoverishment determines the power of a country, and sometimes stimulates resettlement in an area with a fertile climate: as a result of migrations, ethnic cross-breeding occurs and, as a result, ethnogenesis. This process, which lies in the sphere of nature, in history is correlated with the spontaneous development of mankind as a whole, creating and improving the technosphere, on the basis of which progressive social development takes place.
L. N. Gumilev