Earlier this year, 116 tech luminaries signed an open letter calling on the UN to ban "lethal autonomous weapons systems." They believe that such can lead to armed conflicts of unprecedented proportions. The Independent noted that "for the first time, AI experts and robotics companies have made a joint decision on this issue."
But not all observers are so worried. Andrew Ng, who until recently worked as chief scientist at Baidu, has come to the conclusion that worrying about killer robots is like worrying about overcrowding on Mars, and we will have enough time to realize this.
In the early years of the 21st century, few topics generated more interest or debate more vigorously than artificial intelligence, starting with even the very understanding of the term. This March, one observer noted that "there are about as many definitions of AI as there are scientists developing this technology." Robbie Whiting, founder of consulting firm Junior, claims that "AI is not just a buzzword - it will change the world."
While exaggeration does exist, AI is already rebuilding entire industries such as transportation, finance, and healthcare. Facebook's CTO believes AI "can solve problems on a planet-wide scale." Elon Musk, meanwhile, argues that "AI poses a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization." Most technologies are neither useful nor harmful - what matters is who uses them and why.
Few disagree that AI is evolving much faster than we are trying to understand its complex nature, multiple dimensions and far-reaching implications for national security. In a recent report by Gregory Allen and Thaniel Chan, graduate students at Harvard University, there is a call for the government to create something like a RAND corporation for AI.
RAND researchers, in turn, subscribe to the words of the Harvard team.
They propose to consider four areas where the impact of AI can be significant, but uncertain.
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Workplaces
Kai Fu Lee, chairman of SinovationVentures, believes AI is "aimed at large-scale job cuts," while concentrating wealth in the hands of companies that develop or adopt AI. Others believe similar fears were present with the advent of all world-changing technologies right down to the printing press in the 15th century.
The Economist convinces readers that "AI creates demand for jobs," and a growing number of people around the world are "providing digital services on the Internet." Which companies and countries will thrive in the AI era? What segments will disappear, change, be created? How will the nature of work change?
Warfare
Supporters of combat drones argue that such weapons can hit targets with much higher accuracy than humans; and the larger the role they play in the theater of war, the less often the technicians will use them to harm.
But what if such a weapon becomes independent and works independently, without human intervention? Will removing people from the military personnel list lead to an even more severe and unstoppable arms race?
An open letter, published during the 2015 International Collaborative Conference on Artificial Intelligence, warned that autonomous weapons "do not require expensive or hard-to-find raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military forces to mass produce." Will the era of automated weapons be more peaceful or more belligerent?
RAND researchers are calling for an analytical framework and international effort on the use of long-range combat drones in countering terrorism and targeted assassinations.
Making decisions
Politicians are constantly confronted with a myriad of choices and motives - there are many more in the days of social media than twenty years ago. Such information overload does not allow coping with the situation during a crisis, not to mention multiple crises.
Recently there was a proposal to pass "all decisions made by the president through the computer - not to make the final choice, but to help the leader in the person of a person."
But while AI is largely sinless right now, RAND research highlights the risks of algorithmic bias in filtering news, impacting criminal justice, and even providing social security benefits and issuing visas. What decisions should be made to AI? What should remain in the hands of a person? In the hands of a team of people?
Creation
The world is used to AI that can perform exciting computational feats and beat people in popular board games (just over 20 years have passed since the IBMDeepBlue supercomputer famously defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov). How will he continue to progress in the creative space of people?
Artificial intelligence researcher Jesse Engel believes he will "transform the creative process … with smart tools that provide new ways to express." Others are not so optimistic. Journalist Adrienne Lafrance notes that AI can already "flirt", "write novels" and "fake famous paintings with amazing accuracy." What does it mean to be creative? Moreover, what does it mean to be human?
AI discussions often go to extremes, whether it's the promise of a utopia free from human suffering, or the dangers of a dystopia where robots enslave their human creators. A more balanced and rigorous analysis is needed to help shape policies to mitigate risks and maximize benefits. Steps need to be taken to overcome fears that AI will work for government and society.
How can AI influence a country's national interests? What types of AI, if any, can be considered strategic technologies based on government criteria? Where should market forces play, and where is politics? While AI remains largely a science fiction domain, these questions are gaining more and more importance.
Ilya Khel
