News about the end of the world has become the same attributes of our life as soap and a toothbrush, and Hollywood seems to have saddled this topic as a professional horse rider of a thoroughbred trotter, films about the end of the world, the death of our civilization appear on screens like machines from an assembly line.
Maybe there is no smoke without fire? Maybe there is some truth underneath all these prophecies and film adaptations that we just don't want to notice?
This question was posed by NASA scientists and decided to model the further development of our civilization based on many different factors, as well as the history of the development and decline of civilizations previously existing on Earth. When all the data was collected and processed, the result shocked many: according to the HANDY model (Human And Nature DYnamics - the dynamics of the development of mankind and nature), our industrial civilization will fix itself in Bose in 10-20 years due to the uncontrolled use of resources and property inequality.
The NASA model also looks at the historical record of the development and decline of civilizations, which all, without exception, follow the same pattern. Moreover, the more developed a civilization is, the more vulnerable and fragile it becomes.
The study was led by the renowned applied mathematician Safa Montesharrey, who was supported by the National Center for Research on Social and Natural Problems of the USA, as well as the National Science Foundation. The study involved dozens of scientists, programmers, mathematicians, researchers.
The study takes into account the dynamics of changes in population, climate, water supply, agriculture and energy. The correlation of these factors can lead to the collapse of our civilization in the case when "the exploitation of natural resources is in conflict with the carrying capacity and reserves of our planet" against the background of "the economic stratification of society into the elite (rich) and the masses (poor)." All civilizations that have existed over the past 5,000 years (Maya, Sumerian civilization, Mesopotamia, Ancient Rome) ceased to exist for this very reason.
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High wealth inequality on our planet is directly related to the overconsumption of resources by rich countries, namely by their elites.
"… resources are unevenly distributed in society, their distribution is controlled by the elite. The masses produce wealth, but receive only a small part of it, no more than the minimum necessary for their physical survival," the report says.
Hopes that technology and scientific and technological progress can solve this problem can be safely discarded: “The development of technology can increase the efficiency of resource use, but it also increases both per capita consumption and the scale of resource extraction, thus increasing consumption negates efficiency technologies.
Investigating various models of development, Motesharrey and his colleagues came to the conclusion that "in the conditions of modern realities, the collapse of our civilization is most likely inevitable."
"… Elites consume too much, and this leads to the impoverishment of the masses, which then leads to the collapse of society."
In another scenario, with the constant exploitation of resources, the impoverishment of the masses occurs faster at a time when the elites continue to enjoy their high level of consumption, the masses cannot cope with the conditions of existence and their decline occurs, followed by the fall of the elites.
In other words, the main cause of the death of our civilization will not be an asteroid, plague, or thermonuclear war, but terrible property inequality, which will lead to catastrophic consequences. Some members of society and groups of people may start sounding the alarm, demanding structural changes in society, but elites and groups serving them will strongly oppose these changes or take no action.
Scientists say that the appropriate changes can prevent the collapse, and perhaps even direct our civilization on a more stable path of development. This requires a more equitable distribution of resources, a significant reduction in their consumption, as well as a reduction in the birth rate.
"The collapse can be avoided if the consumption of resources per capita begins to correspond to the carrying capacity of our planet, and resources are distributed evenly among all members of society."
NASA's research is a wake-up call to all governments, corporations and consumers who need to understand that we cannot continue living this way and our civilization needs to start changing. Otherwise, we will simply perish.
Similar studies were carried out by the KPMG corporation and the UK Government Office of Science - the British State Scientific Association (in which so often cited British scientists work). They came to similar conclusions, namely that food, water and energy crises can create a “perfect storm” in about 15 years and this is still a fairly conservative estimate, it is possible that it will happen even earlier.
It is time for mankind to realize that it is not a meteorite, not aliens, but property inequality and an unfair distribution of resources that can destroy our civilization in a fairly short time. It seems that we are really faced with a choice: change or die. Hope we pick the first one.