A new study, published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal PNAS, describes a highly unusual experiment. It was attended by 771 men aged 60-70 years. The elderly were randomly divided into three groups. The first was subjected to the "Avada Kedavra" spell. The second - the same curse (but this time the subjects were behind a soundproof glass partition, so they did not hear anything). The third group was the control group - they were exposed to "Wingardium Leviosa" through a partition. For five years, the scientists planned to monitor group mortality.
The study was started as a joke, but it had to be stopped ahead of schedule. A year later, it turned out that the highest mortality was in the groups in which Avada Kedavra was conjured (P <0.05) - and it does not matter whether the subjects heard the name of the spell or not, which excludes psychosomatics.
The study has already generated a heated discussion in the scientific community and in the media. The well-known exposer of psychics, James Randy, spoke negatively about the article: “Contrary to the authors' opinion, the experiment was not blind: volunteers could read a spell“on the lips”through a glass partition. Superstitious people could get scared of Avada Kedavra, which could reduce their lifespan. That's all the magic!"
Statistician Daniel Lackens noted in his blog that the statistical power of the study was insufficient to draw such conclusions. To this, the study authors replied that they themselves did not expect such a result. “If Avada Kedavra worked as described in the Harry Potter books, we would understand that it works after the first test subject. We just wanted to joke, but the results were amazing. Given that our sample size is larger than in many clinical studies, especially in the field of psychology and magic."
There is another problem in the study, adds Daniel Lackens. Science is about finding the most plausible explanation for data. Which is more likely, that the spells from "Harry Potter" are working, or that the heads will come up five times in a row (which roughly corresponds to p <0.05)? It is necessary to take into account the prior probabilities, and not just the obtained p-values.
Another statistician, Professor Eric Wagenmakers, noted that while the study is most likely in error, it is as well done as some other work published in scientific journals. Therefore, it may be time to be stricter about the results of other authors.
Alternative medicine author Deepak Chopra noted that while research certainly demonstrates the power of witchcraft, conducting such experiments is highly unethical - “The existence of dark magic is recognized and condemned by many spiritual leaders and religious organizations. This is not a joke, and the authors should be tried for harming the health of the subjects. He also suggested that the surviving test subjects come to his clinic to remove the curse.
Promotional video:
For completely different reasons, the work was criticized by The Guardian journalist Adam Lee. In his column, he writes that “the study is sexist in that it only examined the effects of the unforgivable curse on men. It is unclear why the authors did not involve women in the experiment. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Avada Kedavra did not work on the latter. It would be very difficult for the authors, three of whom are white men, to acknowledge this fact.”
Finally, Richard Dawkins tweeted that it was time to make the science of harrypotterology and teach it alongside theology. “For all its dubiousness, the evidence for the effectiveness of magic from Harry Potter to date clearly surpasses the empirical evidence for the existence of God,” - said the scientist.
Publication:
Browne S, Hahnemann S, Tertullian Q, Epstein O. Avada Kedavra: a double blind randomized study of an unforgivable curse on elderly British men. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sorcery, 01 April 2019.doi: 13.666 / pnas-2019-111121