You woke up to the smell of coffee, which was prepared not by your loved one, but by your discerning coffee maker. Not romantic? But it is convenient!
The TV set itself on your favorite show. Smart refrigerator sent an order to the online store for your favorite cheese, which disappeared from the refrigerator shelf yesterday. The air conditioner without your commands tuned in to the morning mode. Alas, I had to tinker with the car - to press a couple of buttons, but she herself, like a virtuoso driver, took you to the office.
Incredible plot? Not at all. This is our very near future. It is described by both foreign and domestic experts. But this time, with the help of foresight technology (“look into the future”), the Agency for Strategic Initiatives looked into tomorrow not only to paint a blissful picture of what will come in fifteen to twenty years. But to understand what threats await us in the nearest foreseeable.
Robots work, not humans
How can a person maintain his leadership in the world of robots and smart machines? Remember, 15 years ago a mobile phone was considered a luxury, but now every kid has a smart gadget in his pocket that replaces not only books and reference books, sections and circles, communication with friends and cribs during exams.
A modern gadget is a genie from the famous fairy tale about Aladdin: it fulfills everything, well, almost all desires. And according to experts' forecasts, in the next 15-20 years, it will be possible to implant neurointerfaces and a neuronet into the human brain, which will help us to command things at a distance and upload information directly to the "gray matter". Does this mean that a person will finally lose his inner freedom and become completely dependent on electronics?
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Already, about 2 billion people use the Internet. By 2015, 25 billion different devices will be connected to the Network, and by 2020 - 50 billion different devices. We are not talking about smartphones and computers, but about cars, TVs and refrigerators, security systems and water supplies. At a speed beyond the reach of the human mind, they will make decisions for us. And this, of course, will entail revolutionary changes in life.
- Humanity itself is raising a dangerous cognitive competitor. This seeming carelessness is justified by one thing: this will create the prerequisites for an evolutionary leap, says Sergei Gradirovsky, a member of the expert council under the government of the Russian Federation.
A new evolutionary leap is inevitable. But what can humans oppose to machines and artificial intelligence?
High power
In fact, the answer lies in the area that we have recently begun to forget, leaving the advantages to the intellect, considering the rational in itself as the highest power. And the advantage of a person over a machine, according to experts, is precisely in the sphere of the irrational: a person is endowed with intuition; he is emotional, "and as long as he is emotional, he cannot be calculated"; man has a will and a body; man is mortal “and therefore everything in his life is infinitely important”; and finally, the most important thing is that a person knows how to love.
- The machine can perform. The next step is to serve. In the future - to manage and rebel, but love is the way of the heart, which the car does not have, - notes Sergey Gradirovsky. I confess, this idea is dear to my heart. Although, what is love without reason given to a person for such a generous use?
What is it, the city in which we will live?
So, man himself creates the third nature (the first is nature itself, the second nature is called culture). And this radically changes the philosophy of the city in which we will live. How?
One of the trends is an increase in the number of generations. Now the average life expectancy is 65-75 years (which is about 3 generations of people), but according to experts, human life expectancy will increase to 100-120 years (due to new health-saving technologies and progressive medicine). And this will affect the emergence of new functions of the city, which must meet the needs of all generations. After all, each age segment has its own life tasks and needs - young people need spaces for active recreation and entertainment, older people - parks, recreation areas where, for example, you can collectively do gymnastics in the morning.
And if you consider that most of a person's life will take place in the online space (and for many it is already happening), then the city will just have to provide optimal conditions for the luxury of real communication. And, as foresight experts say, by 2030 we will be able to see cities that will exist not only for comfortable life and work.
- We are looking for a life that is not only comfortable, convenient, safe, but also meaningful, creative, effective. This requires schools of thought, spaces of special communication, and a meeting with the beautiful. This is the city that must provide, - shares his reflections Sergei Gradirovsky.
The second important trend is that population mobility will grow. But a “nomadic” person, in a good way, needs comfort, following his projects and work. For such people (mainly creative professions), “networks of nomads” (from the Greek nomados - nomadic) will be created due to the fact that the townspeople will register their own little-used apartments in this network as available for living.
And anyone, leaving their home, can give it to the same needy nomad, and in the meantime, stay in someone else's empty apartment hundreds of kilometers from their home. And such a free attitude to property in the future would cause me great doubts if I did not know that even now in Europe it is quite common among young people.
According to experts, in the near future the theme of the ecology of the city, its comfort, cleanliness and convenience will become fashionable. I foresee that people living in small, neglected towns, of which there are so many in the vastness of our country, will react with skepticism to this. But let's at least dream …
But as a counteraction, as a resistance to the insane onslaught of smart machines and precise mechanisms that perform everything for a person, the process of a kind of return to what was once not considered a value at all, but rather an everyday life, will begin. A class of new artisans will emerge - an almost elite group that does everything beautifully, subtly (and expensively) with their own hands.
Uniqueness rules
- New technologies will inevitably come into our lives. It is impossible to prevent this. It is almost criminal not to notice what is happening, - says Dmitry Peskov, director of the Young Professionals department of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. - Now, for example, we already have a generation of "new Mowgli" - children who are brought up by computers and tablets. They are different. We must finally realize this and start preparing to interact with them in 20 years, when they enter the active working age. And to be ready now for them to rebuild the education system so that it meets their requirements, so that it develops the potential that they have.
And foresight experts predict a rebirth of today's educational space. According to the professor of practice, director of corporate educational programs of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" Pavel Luksha, in the next 10-15 years we will have the so-called "Lego - education", which will be built by many independent players, and a person will collect his own individual educational constructor through a network of online services and offline additional education.
It is obvious that the picture of the future also changes the view on the nature of human success. What could be valuable in the world of intelligent machines? The uniqueness of each individual person, that's what! Therefore, on the horizon of 2030, not so much knowledge will be assessed, but personal qualities and competencies of a person.
For the successful development of each child, and even an adult, a coach (mentor) will draw up a personal trajectory of success (based on abilities and wishes), which will become a kind of fairway in life. A similar technology with the beautiful name "Vertical flights" is beginning to gain momentum right now, but, according to the experts of the Russian foresight, in the next 10 years, training cannot be imagined without an individual development trajectory for everyone.
Transparency is the answer
“Universities for a Billion” (such as Coursera and EdX, which provide Russian-language courses and related professional development opportunities) will come to Russia. Yes, this will become a threat to the country's intellectual resources, but at the same time it will be a challenge to which Russian universities will have to respond by raising the level of domestic education and its prestige.
Thus, the transparency of the university system, as experts predict, will solve many problems. The "open university" system (when the results of each student's studies will be opened on special online platforms) will force students to study better, and employers will have the opportunity to find a good specialist for themselves while he is still sitting on the university bench.
Most likely, "peer-to-peer" assessment systems for term papers and theses will be formed in order to avoid widespread plagiarism. There is also a transparency option for educators. Online ratings of higher school teachers will be created (which will enable top teachers to go beyond their university and be in demand even on international educational platforms).
We do not recognize age! Remember? People will live longer. And this is one of the reasons why in one life it can go through several technological cycles. These are our parents, not to mention grandparents, who worked all their lives in one, at most in two working collectives. A modern person, and even more so a person of the future, in one life will be forced to change several professions (can he now know, when he finishes school or university, which professions will be in demand in 10 - 20 years?). Hence the idea of lifelong learning becomes more than real. Courses for people aged 45 and above will become the norm, and their demand will only grow. Ageism - age discrimination, will sink into oblivion, and a person will remain mobile even in adulthood, which you will agree, pleases.
Retired
And, if with the help of new health-saving technologies a person can still live up to such a venerable age of 100, then one can dream about what the person of the future will be busy with when he retires? After all, he still has a whole life ahead of him …
Now is the time to finally start learning Spanish, yoga and sign up for interior design courses. Or maybe special communities will be created for people in the second half of their lives? Who knows? Perhaps this issue will be concerned later, when there will be much less young people in the world than the elderly …