The companies that run the world seem invulnerable. But in reality, they are very vulnerable. It has always been this way: IBM, Microsoft, Yahoo, MySpace - once everyone seemed invincible. But gradually, one by one, they sank lower and lower in the rankings (although Microsoft is still a $ 638 billion company).
The same is happening today, as four companies - Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon - vie for an iron throne in the technology world (with a total capitalization of $ 2.61 trillion). And although there are no contenders for the crown today, who knows what will happen in a few years.
The key to a successful revolution lies in the underlying innovation, and in the case of the tech industry, it is clear that we are on the verge of breaking through several new categories that will spawn in multi-billion dollar markets. It is possible, however, that Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon will be the first to capitalize on these innovations, but completely new players may appear.
Even if newbies don't become giants, there is plenty of room for big success stories. “It will be difficult to create a universal search engine or social network for the mass market right now,” said Benedict Evans, partner and analyst at Andreessen Horowitz, one of the most prestigious venture capital firms in Silicon Valley. "It will be difficult to create Apple or Facebook, but that doesn't mean you can't compete with them in your field."
The question arises: what technologies are bringing the future closer? At first glance, four areas define the future - autonomy, mixed reality, cryptocurrencies, and artificial intelligence. No surprises here. But there are others.
The evolution of new technologies is comparable to how a skyscraper grows into the sky. First, a hole is formed in the ground, in which nothing is visible. Then scaffolding appears and the structure begins to grow. It seems that nothing is happening, but one day the building is completed. In technology it is the same: the technology is complete when the propellant is added to the fire.
Experts see these four areas as one solid building: autonomy is a “dirty hole in the ground”; mixed reality - scaffolding buildings; cryptocurrencies - the building itself; AI is a complete tower looking for tenants.
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Analysts believe the tech industry has a long history of so-called S-curve cycles, or slow starts with fast and steep growth and slow maturation. Today's S-curve is the mobile Internet, the previous one is the computer Internet. In each case, as the curve matures, the question moves from the technology itself to what can be built on top of it. So we moved on to the mobile internet, and then to Instagram and other things that you can do with your phones on the web.
The point is, when we get to a certain point on the curve, people always start saying that the platform is dead. The iPhone comes along, people look at it and say it's cool, but ten years later the market is teeming with it. Many people think that fully autonomous cars will appear in 5-10 years, but it will be a long time before the first such car is sold, before all cars become autonomous.
Black Monolith
In his presentation, Evans says that of all the technologies that await us in the long run, artificial intelligence is the easiest to discuss. And calling it "AI" is useless. “It seems like someone put a black monolith in this room in early 2001,” says Evans, “and we all turned into monkeys that dance and scream. We don't know what it is."
Better to call artificial intelligence "machine learning" - as many do - and consider it against the backdrop of a key technology that allows you to identify and distribute patterns in completely unfamiliar areas and among data that are observed for the first time. In turn, this promises automation in many areas.
It's important not to fall for the idea that automation means great opportunities. Rather, Evans says, the benefits of machine learning-driven automation are specific new capabilities and, more importantly, the ability to create many new companies around single-purpose verticals. Automation also serves as a multiplier that allows you to perform small tasks that would take thousands of human hours to complete, such as looking for patterns in images.
If one person does it, it's okay. But if thousands are huge costs. Machine learning could significantly speed up the processing of data, for example, about road traffic over the past few months.
Changing cities
While the world is unlikely to change much, autonomy will have a huge impact on it. When that day comes, cars, buses and other vehicles will begin to move without drivers, and we will be able to look at them anew, remake, make them better.
If there are no drivers, there will be more cars on the roads. There should be no accidents either, if all transport will move together, being aware of the actions of other vehicles, about the types of roads. This will lead to a completely new design of cities that will not need parking, traffic jams, parking lots.
It is not easy to predict exactly where this will lead us, what opportunities it promises, but they will be huge. Evans believes it's important to see them in the context of the future. “If you are building a public infrastructure or planning a city, then thinking for years ahead is absolutely essential. If you schedule a TV channel today, you don't think about what people will watch when they no longer have to be distracted by the road."
Mixed reality
At first, mixed reality is Evans' third area that offers a ton of possibilities. What happens if you literally carry a computer that can see?
Today, he says, we're in the prototyping phase - take Microsoft Hololens, for example - but for the most part, little is available. There are, of course, opportunities for development. Magic Leap recently raised $ 1.9 billion to fund a headset almost never seen before.
Evans is less interested in being able to put recipes on hobs, and more in computers that can see and interpret what is happening around us. Such a computer would tell you who you were meeting, when you last saw him, what you wanted to talk to him about. Or it will instantly tell you if there is a product available on the Internet that is cheaper than what you are holding in your hands.
Crypt
Evans touched less on the possibilities of cryptocurrency in his speech. But the power of the "crypt" is unconditional. First, cryptocurrencies provide decentralized storage of value without the need for a central authority - for example, a government that manages traditional money. This is important in a world in which people lose faith in such institutions and want more control over money without government intervention.
Second, the very technologies underlying cryptocurrencies can be programmed and used in completely new ways. Over time, all this will be found. At the same time, it is extremely important that no one sees what can grow on the virgin soil of new technologies. How could you have imagined Airbnb before the internet?
“In 2007, we were thinking about how to make a smartphone, and now we are thinking about what else can be done with a smartphone,” says Evans. "In the same way, today we are thinking about how to make an autonomous car, machine learning, mixed reality, and in twenty years we will think about what to do with them."
Ilya Khel