In 2100, 2 billion people - nearly one-fifth of the world's population - could become climate refugees due to rising ocean levels. People who now live on the coast may be forced to leave their homes and move inland, according to a study by scientists at Cornell University (USA).
“Smaller tracts of land will have more people, and this will happen faster than we think,” said lead author Charles Geisler. - The rise in global sea level is likely not to be gradual. Few think about the obstacles that climate refugees will face as they migrate to higher terrain.”
The world's population will reach 9 billion by 2050 and 11 billion by 2100, according to a United Nations report. More arable land will be needed to feed the growing population as the ocean swallows up fertile coastal areas and river deltas, forcing people to seek new places to live.
By 2060, about 1.4 billion people could become climate refugees. And by 2100, ocean waves are likely to expel up to 2 billion people from coastal settlements.
“Human fertility, coastal flooding, migration and barriers to resettlement in dry areas are a huge problem. We assume that safe areas are unlikely to withstand new waves of climate refugees given war, internal conflict, depleted natural resources, declining soil productivity, desertification, urban sprawl at the expense of rural areas, paved roads and melting permafrost,”says Geisler.
The paper describes solutions and preventive measures in Florida and China that coordinate coastal and inland land use policies in anticipation of weather-induced population migration.
Florida, home to the second longest coastline in the United States, will see massive coastal flight.
In addition to rising sea levels, low coastal areas in many countries will face severe storm surges that push sea water inland. Historically, people have spent considerable effort taking land from the ocean, but now the situation will be the opposite - the oceans will take away their habitable terrestrial space,”says Geisler.
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In his research, the scientist examines the worst-case scenario for the current century. The authors note that competition for diminished living space is conflicts for land. In the US, this could mean selling land for human settlements.
“We are obliged to keep greenhouse gas emissions at the current level. This is the best defense against climate change, sea level rise and catastrophic consequences that will play out on the coast and on land in the future,”concludes Geisler.