The Libération newspaper, according to RFI, published an article about the CIA report, which makes forecasts for world development until 2035.
Analysts at the US Central Intelligence Agency regularly make forecasts of this kind, where several versions of world development are considered at once: from the worst to the most optimistic.
Three possible scenarios look pretty pessimistic.
Between 2020 and 2035, the balance of power on the planet will change so radically that either isolated and self-contained states may emerge, or a nuclear conflict may arise, or state governance will be minimized in favor of local self-government bodies.
The CIA bases its conclusions on the fact that the current global trend is the discord of alliances that have existed for decades and economic protectionism. Analysts attribute this trend to the negative effect of globalization and the rise of populism. As a result, by 2035 the world will be made up of "island states" with poorer populations and rising unemployment due to the development of new technologies.
In the second scenario, the CIA looks at the declining influence of the United States in the international arena and the growing tension between its traditional competitors: Russia, China, and Iran.
Until 2035, these three countries will try to spread their economic, political and military influence over their neighbors, which could eventually lead to armed conflict. Around 2028, a crisis is possible between India and Pakistan, which will lead to the use of nuclear weapons for the first time since 1945.
The third scenario can be called the most optimistic, but only because it excludes war. However, the growing distrust of the population towards state authorities and towards politics in general can lead to the loss of the state's influence as an institution of power. It will be assigned only functions in the field of international representation and in matters of security, but everything else - education, medicine, economic policy and taxes - will be transferred to local governments.
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