Astronomers assure: neighbors are developed enough to come into contact with us
The American astronomers Luis Ancordoki, Susanna Weber and Jorge Soriano (Louis Anchordoqui, Susanna Weber, Jorge Soriano) made encouraging conclusions in their work entitled "Is there anybody out there?" They plan to publish it in the Proceedings of the 35th International Cosmic Ray Conference - ICRC 2017.
Scientists assure that within 10 kiloparsecs - this is about 30 thousand light years - there is at least one developed civilization that possesses the technology that allows us to come into contact with us. At least send signals.
Ankordoki and colleagues learned about the existence of brothers in mind from the Drake equation, which just allows you to calculate the probable number of extraterrestrial civilizations. Its - this very equation - was derived in 1960 by the professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of California, Frank Donald Drake.
The equation named after the scientist has seven terms. Including: the number of stars formed per year, the proportion of stars with planets, the number of planets or their satellites with conditions suitable for life, the likelihood of the birth of any life, the likelihood of its transformation into a reasonable one, the proportion of planets with highly developed beings, the lifetime of a civilization, living on the planet.
Calculations carried out in different years according to Drake's formula gave a different number of brothers in mind: from their complete absence - to 5 thousand. The scatter arose from the fact that scientists differently estimated the values of the parameters included in the equation. They were based, naturally, on the ideas of their time.
Much has now become clearer - especially thanks to the observations that were carried out using the Kepler space telescope. It turned out that there are more stars in the Universe than previously imagined, as well as planets suitable for life.
The Ankordoks and colleagues admitted that life arises, intelligent beings appear and develop, developing communication technologies. Calculations have shown that the number of civilizations ready for contact in the foreseeable space of our galaxy - the Milky Way - is greater than zero.
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One of the arms of the Milky Way is visible from Earth. Maybe the neighbors live there.
AT THIS TIME
The chances that we are alone in the universe are negligible. So there is definitely someone else.
Armed with fresh data about the universe, Drake's equation was recently used by Adam Frank, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester, and colleagues from the Department of Astronomy and Astrobiology at the University of Washington. However, scientists have calculated not the estimated number of intelligent civilizations, but on the contrary - the probability that there is no one else in the Universe except us. And it turned out: the chances of our loneliness are vanishingly small - less than one divided by 10 to the 22nd power.
The researchers decided that since the likelihood that we are alone is so small, then most likely we are not alone, the researchers decided. Further calculations have shown that there are about 10 billion intelligent civilizations in the Universe. Nothing less. Only in our galaxy - the Milky Way - there are several thousand.
Frank believes that most civilizations appeared long before ours. And have already disappeared. So astroarchaeologists will have to look for them. But at the same time, it is possible that several hundred high-level civilizations in our galaxy are still preserved.
Drake's Equation, on the basis of which scientists draw bold conclusions
Scientists are upset: if the speed of movement in space is really limited by the speed of light and there are no "holes" connecting the distant regions of the galaxy by a short path, then we are unlikely to ever come into contact with brothers in mind. They are too far away - on average, according to Frank, at least 20 thousand light years.
Ankordoki is not so optimistic. After all, he places in a sphere outlined by a radius of 30 thousand light years, only one developed extraterrestrial civilization. The center of the sphere is our Sun.
VLADIMIR LAGOVSKY