Artificial intelligence and robotization of the economy will push the majority of the population to the sidelines. Their lot, according to futurologists, will be computer games.
Are you afraid of a robotic invasion? According to a report by the World Economic Forum, in the next three years, soulless pieces of iron will fill 5 million jobs in the labor market in 15 developed countries. The good old professions will die out in batches in the digital age. So in due time the craft of a coachman went into oblivion for 20 years. In 1916, there were 16 thousand passenger cabs in Moscow, and in 1936 only 120 people were registered …
ETERNAL HOLIDAY IS COMING
With the same impetuosity in the next 2-3 decades, professions, which today constitute the backbone of the economy, will disappear on the planet. For example, the son of a bricklayer will never again wield a trowel. This specialty was sentenced to death (albeit with a deferred execution) after the brick stacking robots were created. For example, the Australian machine Hadrian X stacks 1000 bricks per hour. This is 8-10 times more than a flesh-and-blood builder can lay.
The robotization of the economy will primarily destroy, as a class of taxi drivers, truckers, office workers, loaders, builders and workers …
“Already today, the number of employees with medium and low qualifications is decreasing like shagreen leather,” says Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, rector of the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Alexander Kuleshov. - This applies not only to simple working specialties. To give a simple example, there are 70 million engineers in the world. 80 percent of their work consists of searching for analogs on the Internet and minor revision of existing solutions. And only 20 percent of the product of design engineers is new developments. Studies show that only a small part of the people from this multimillion army are able to retrain and find new applications in the face of competition with artificial intelligence. The problem is not even that hundreds of millions (if not billions) of people will lose their jobs for a while. The trouble isthat for these people in society, in principle, there will never be an application.
According to the futurologist and professor of history at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Yuval Noah Harari, by 2050, a large new class will form on the planet - useless people. What will they do: organize revolutions? Breaking robots like the Luddites used to destroy machines? Not at all, the Israeli professor believes, computer games will become the meaning of life for these people: they will spend all their free time in virtual reality.
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BREAD WITH BUTTER FOR "EXTRA PEOPLE"
This process is developing before our eyes. According to a study by Eric Hirst, an economist at the University of Chicago, 22 percent of young American men with no college degrees - roughly 20 million - have not worked a day in the past year. At the same time, 7 million unemployed did not even attempt to find a job.
“We know from experience that an increase in unemployment leads to a rise in crime and an increase in alcohol consumption. - says Hirst. “However, the crime situation is not getting worse. What are these young guys doing? According to research, they spend little time on the street, live with their parents and have no intention of getting married. It turns out that they play video games most of their leisure time! Over the past 15 years, the amount of free time for young men under the age of 20 has increased by 4 hours per week. 75 percent of this is spent on toys. In absolute terms, on average, young unemployed guys spend 2 hours a day in virtual reality. But at the same time, 10 percent of those surveyed said that they play at least 6 hours a day.
On what means will the representatives of the "useless class" live? Now, according to Hirst, most of the "extra" young people live at the expense of their parents. In 2014, 70 percent of them sat on the neck of relatives. For comparison, in 2000 - only 35% "milked" mom and dad.
And in the future, the basic vital needs of people who have not found themselves in life will be satisfied at the expense of the unconditional basic income (AML). It will be paid to any citizen. Last year, a referendum on the introduction of AML was held in Switzerland, but failed - citizens feared that this would become a bait for migrants. However, 6 countries have already decided on local experiments with this system. In 2017, Canada, Finland and Holland will start giving out free money to citizens (from $ 700 to $ 1400 per month). So they will provide bread and butter to useless people. It is much more difficult to come to terms with the meaninglessness of your existence. But a three-dimensional virtual reality world will be created for them. There, Yuval Noah Harari believes, people will find much more emotions, passions and experiences than real life can provide. After all, the lack of work does not mean the loss of the meaning of existence.
FROM THE HISTORY OF THE ISSUE
Ovechkin vs. Guy Apuleius Diocles
At one time, humanity has already faced such a situation. For example, in ancient Rome, where the bulk of the GDP was produced by "living robots" - slaves. And citizens suffering from an excess of free time also demanded: "Bread and circuses!" With entertainment in ancient Rome, business was put on a grand scale. To imagine what the scale of the entertainment industry was in those days, it is worth mentioning just one fact. Who do you think is the highest paid athlete of all time? Perhaps the richest hockey player of our time, Alexander Ovechkin, with a $ 124 million contract? Or golfer Tiger Woods, who amassed a fortune of $ 1.65 billion? Not at all. This is the charioteer Guy Apuleius Diocles, who lived in ancient Rome in the second century AD. He participated in the most popular sport in the ancient world - chariot racing. This is a kind of analogue of the modern "Formula 1". During his career, Guy Diocles has driven 4257 races and won 1462 victories. His earnings amounted to 35,863,120 sesterces (this amount was knocked out of the monument erected by the fans), which in modern money is 15 billion dollars!
And how they worked with the "augmented reality" in Coliseum, it was planted on the treasures obtained during the sack of Jerusalem in the Jewish War! In honor of the opening of the arena, Emperor Titus staged gladiatorial battles that lasted 100 days without interruption. And in one day, 5 thousand wild animals were released against the gladiators. Everything began so merrily with the extra people of antiquity! But then, as you know, the barbarians came and ruined everything …
Yaroslav KOROBATOV