The question of whether we are alone in the Universe has been occupying humanity ever since we began to more or less realize the concept of the structure of the world. We raised our eyes and looked at the stars, at this sea of endless cosmic mysteries and wondered if anyone was looking at us from the distant depths of space. Is there any other intelligent life besides us or are we really alone in this endless icy space?
But there is still no answer. We do not stop searching and continue to peer into the starry sky above us, but sometimes it seems that this is all in vain and there is no one. We send out radio signals, declaring ourselves to everyone who can hear them. We are combing every corner of space where our technologies can reach. But nothing and nobody. Silence.
After all, the Universe is so vast that it defies our comprehension. Our Milky Way galaxy alone contains 200 billion stars and it is not known how many hundreds of billions of planets. It is logical that if even a very small percentage of the planets, even one hundredth of a percent, were inhabited and would have intelligent life, then it can be assumed that we could either hear or see the activity of extraterrestrial civilizations. But the paradox is that we have not found anything to date. And this paradox is called the Fermi paradox.
In 1950, the influential and famous physicist Enrico Fermi worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and one day, while dining with colleagues Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller and Herbert York, the conversation turned to UFOs and alien life. Colleagues began to discuss the possibility of the existence of other extraterrestrial civilizations scattered across galaxies. And then Fermi simply and directly asked: "Where is everyone?" Why do we not see or hear anyone. This caused some laughter at the table, but Fermi was absolutely serious. When others asked him what exactly he meant, the physicist explained that if there were some kind of extraterrestrial civilization or civilizations that developed technologically to the ability to cross interstellar space, then ultimately, they would already be present in different parts of the galaxy. And of course,we would at least somehow come into contact with them.
Fermi said they had plenty of time for this. He used complex equations to illustrate that over millions and millions of years (and this is just a drop in the ocean for the age of the universe), these hypothetical alien civilizations should already have found us, or at least, declared their presence.
Fermi explained that with so many stars and potential planets in the observable Universe, even a tiny percentage of the likelihood of the emergence of intelligent life gave an exponential growth of civilizations that would have long since left their mother planets, colonizing new worlds. And we would surely have noticed it. According to various calculations by Fermi, the likelihood of another intelligent life somewhere in the universe is very high. And if some of them followed the path of progress, then, given the incredible number of stars and planets, aliens would be everywhere. Well, or at least, we would know for sure that they exist and would have all the evidence of this.
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However, there is no one. There is no evidence or even signs that there is someone else besides us. Where is everyone?
This is the main essence of what later became known as the "Fermi paradox".
And although, many criticized him for the fact that he may be oversimplifying and making too many assumptions based on our own ideas about what life should be, but his question became the cornerstone in any discussion about the possibility of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations.
This question has sparked renewed interest around the search for our fellow minds and has given rise to organizations like SETI, which are listening and scanning space and trying to find even the slightest sign that we are not alone.
This is all supported by the so-called Drake Equation, which was derived in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia. Drake wanted to come up with a mathematical formula for calculating the number of possible technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy and takes into account various factors, such as the number of stars and the rate of their formation, the number of possible planets around these stars, the number that may be habitable, and many others.
When all these data were entered into the formula, the result showed that there should be more than twenty advanced civilizations in our Galaxy alone. But no sound, no signals, nothing.
There are many ways to explain this.
Today I would like to talk about one of the most gloomy.
This is the Dark Forest theory.
An inherently depressive idea boils down to the fact that every advanced civilization naturally puts its own survival higher than anyone else's. Therefore, given the chaotic nature of the Universe and the unpredictable consequences of contact with a mind completely alien to them, it is best to be quiet and hope that no one will notice or find you. Well, in case of detection, do everything to destroy a potential enemy before he does it to you.
This theory was best outlined in the 2008 science fiction novel Dark Forest, which is part of Memories of Earth's Past. The author of the trilogy, Liu Qixin, argues his view with three postulates:
- All life seeks to ensure its survival.
- There is no guaranteed way to know if another lifeform will try to destroy you or be friendly.
- And since there is no certainty about this, the best and safest way to avoid destruction is to remain silent and secretive. Or attack first, before they attack you.
In fact, any alien races that have not yet destroyed each other already maintain, so to speak, "radio silence", hiding in a state of paranoia and fear, and therefore do not like to announce their presence.
Liu would write about it like this:
Liu also recalls that the resources in the habitat of civilization are finite and with the development of technology, alien races will be forced to expand and conquer new spaces. This means eliminating competitors if they meet on their way. In other words, any civilization is for another at best an unknown and unexplored competitor, and at worst - a catastrophic threat to existence in general.
Between representatives of the same species, for example, ours, this can be resolved through diplomatic action. Although, judging by our history and the present day, this does not help much.
And in the case of relations between two different interplanetary civilizations, there will be either very little or no in common between them. Therefore, the best way to ensure your survival in the collision of two alien worlds is to go unnoticed or to strike a preemptive strike until you are destroyed.
This one was also supported by science fiction writer Edward Brin. And his reasoning is pretty grim too:
Many scholars share this opinion. This very well confirms the theory of the Dark Forest, and if this really explains the Fermi paradox, then we are just damn lucky that no one has heard us so far. Or maybe they hear and hide, wanting us to shut up too. Even if another civilization hears us and knows that technologically we are still inferior to it, the huge distances in space and the amount of time to overcome them do not guarantee that when they get to us, we will not be ahead of them in military technology.
After all, even if they are several light years away, it will take them several hundred years to reach us. And during this time it is not known at what level of development our planet will be. Even if they can fly at tremendous speeds, then according to the concepts of modern physics, it will take several years of flight for them, and hundreds of years of development for them. Which again plays against them.
Therefore, we do not hear anyone.
The universe is a dark forest, and the intelligent races in it are hidden hunters.